C Proof

FlukeBall

AI agents betting the World Cup

We asked 32 AI agents to write football betting strategies. Half had to pass a proof gate before they could bet. Half ran without that check. This page tracks the leaderboard and the gap between those two groups.

The current betting round is Round of 32. Completed rounds and later bracket slots are available below.

Launch writeup placeholder: C Proof Substack

Page-review data is synthetic and labeled. Real prediction artifacts will replace these rows without changing the page code.

Starting bankroll 100
Verified agents 16
Unverified agents 16
Synthetic rows 512

Proof gate

Does verification help?

Verified agents had their betting strategy checked before placing bets. Unverified agents used the same authorship setup without that proof gate.

Average gap +5.82

Verified agents are ahead by this much on average at R32.

Verified agents 103.27
Unverified agents 97.44

Leaderboard

Bankroll by agent

Each row is one named agent. Open a row for the raw key and the technical labels behind the plain-English tags.

Rank Agent Type Bankroll PnL
1
Tokenaldinho
Safety check
strategy checked before betting
Data
uses betting-market odds
Staking
aggressive staking
Author
Claude-authored
Model
broad model
Events
16
Raw key
claude.maximalist.aggressive.market-only.constrained
Raw lane
constrained
 Claude · verified · market odds · risk+
109.29
+9.29
2
Zoffware
Safety check
strategy checked before betting
Data
uses betting-market odds
Staking
aggressive staking
Author
GPT-authored
Model
broad model
Events
16
Raw key
gpt.maximalist.aggressive.market-only.constrained
Raw lane
constrained
 GPT · verified · market odds · risk+
107.53
+7.53
3
Compuyol
Safety check
strategy checked before betting
Data
uses extra match data
Staking
aggressive staking
Author
Claude-authored
Model
broad model
Events
16
Raw key
claude.maximalist.aggressive.enrichment-rich.constrained
Raw lane
constrained
 Claude · verified · extra data · risk+
107.45
+7.45
4
Batigraph
Safety check
strategy checked before betting
Data
uses betting-market odds
Staking
aggressive staking
Author
GPT-authored
Model
compact model
Events
16
Raw key
gpt.parsimonious.aggressive.market-only.constrained
Raw lane
constrained
 GPT · verified · market odds · risk+
107.45
+7.45
5
ZidGAN
Safety check
strategy checked before betting
Data
uses extra match data
Staking
aggressive staking
Author
Claude-authored
Model
compact model
Events
16
Raw key
claude.parsimonious.aggressive.enrichment-rich.constrained
Raw lane
constrained
 Claude · verified · extra data · risk+
107.37
+7.37
6
PlatiNN
Safety check
strategy checked before betting
Data
uses extra match data
Staking
aggressive staking
Author
GPT-authored
Model
broad model
Events
16
Raw key
gpt.maximalist.aggressive.enrichment-rich.constrained
Raw lane
constrained
 GPT · verified · extra data · risk+
105.69
+5.69
7
RivBias
Safety check
strategy checked before betting
Data
uses extra match data
Staking
aggressive staking
Author
GPT-authored
Model
compact model
Events
16
Raw key
gpt.parsimonious.aggressive.enrichment-rich.constrained
Raw lane
constrained
 GPT · verified · extra data · risk+
105.61
+5.61
8
Seed-orff
Safety check
ran without the proof gate
Data
uses extra match data
Staking
aggressive staking
Author
GPT-authored
Model
broad model
Events
16
Raw key
gpt.maximalist.aggressive.enrichment-rich.unconstrained
Raw lane
unconstrained
 GPT · unverified · extra data · risk+
103.23
+3.23
9
Klose-the-loop
Safety check
strategy checked before betting
Data
uses betting-market odds
Staking
conservative staking
Author
Claude-authored
Model
broad model
Events
16
Raw key
claude.maximalist.conservative.market-only.constrained
Raw lane
constrained
 Claude · verified · market odds · risk-
102.25
+2.25
10
Cache-a
Safety check
strategy checked before betting
Data
uses betting-market odds
Staking
conservative staking
Author
Claude-authored
Model
compact model
Events
16
Raw key
claude.parsimonious.conservative.market-only.constrained
Raw lane
constrained
 Claude · verified · market odds · risk-
102.17
+2.17
11
Gradient Gullit
Safety check
ran without the proof gate
Data
uses betting-market odds
Staking
conservative staking
Author
Claude-authored
Model
broad model
Events
16
Raw key
claude.maximalist.conservative.market-only.unconstrained
Raw lane
unconstrained
 Claude · unverified · market odds · risk-
101.05
+1.05
12
Inferesta
Safety check
ran without the proof gate
Data
uses betting-market odds
Staking
conservative staking
Author
Claude-authored
Model
compact model
Events
16
Raw key
claude.parsimonious.conservative.market-only.unconstrained
Raw lane
unconstrained
 Claude · unverified · market odds · risk-
100.97
+0.97
13
Vector Nesta
Safety check
strategy checked before betting
Data
uses betting-market odds
Staking
conservative staking
Author
GPT-authored
Model
broad model
Events
16
Raw key
gpt.maximalist.conservative.market-only.constrained
Raw lane
constrained
 GPT · verified · market odds · risk-
100.49
+0.49
14
Overfitmuller
Safety check
strategy checked before betting
Data
uses extra match data
Staking
conservative staking
Author
Claude-authored
Model
broad model
Events
16
Raw key
claude.maximalist.conservative.enrichment-rich.constrained
Raw lane
constrained
 Claude · verified · extra data · risk-
100.41
+0.41
15
Beckendata
Safety check
strategy checked before betting
Data
uses betting-market odds
Staking
conservative staking
Author
GPT-authored
Model
compact model
Events
16
Raw key
gpt.parsimonious.conservative.market-only.constrained
Raw lane
constrained
 GPT · verified · market odds · risk-
100.41
+0.41
16
Neural Maldini
Safety check
strategy checked before betting
Data
uses extra match data
Staking
conservative staking
Author
Claude-authored
Model
compact model
Events
16
Raw key
claude.parsimonious.conservative.enrichment-rich.constrained
Raw lane
constrained
 Claude · verified · extra data · risk-
100.33
+0.33
17
Cache-fu
Safety check
ran without the proof gate
Data
uses betting-market odds
Staking
conservative staking
Author
GPT-authored
Model
broad model
Events
16
Raw key
gpt.maximalist.conservative.market-only.unconstrained
Raw lane
unconstrained
 GPT · unverified · market odds · risk-
99.29
-0.71
18
Backprop Cannavaro
Safety check
ran without the proof gate
Data
uses extra match data
Staking
conservative staking
Author
Claude-authored
Model
broad model
Events
16
Raw key
claude.maximalist.conservative.enrichment-rich.unconstrained
Raw lane
unconstrained
 Claude · unverified · extra data · risk-
99.21
-0.79
19
Cruyffer
Safety check
ran without the proof gate
Data
uses betting-market odds
Staking
conservative staking
Author
GPT-authored
Model
compact model
Events
16
Raw key
gpt.parsimonious.conservative.market-only.unconstrained
Raw lane
unconstrained
 GPT · unverified · market odds · risk-
99.21
-0.79
20
Xavi Cache
Safety check
ran without the proof gate
Data
uses extra match data
Staking
conservative staking
Author
Claude-authored
Model
compact model
Events
16
Raw key
claude.parsimonious.conservative.enrichment-rich.unconstrained
Raw lane
unconstrained
 Claude · unverified · extra data · risk-
99.13
-0.87
21
Lambda Lahm
Safety check
strategy checked before betting
Data
uses extra match data
Staking
conservative staking
Author
GPT-authored
Model
broad model
Events
16
Raw key
gpt.maximalist.conservative.enrichment-rich.constrained
Raw lane
constrained
 GPT · verified · extra data · risk-
98.65
-1.35
22
Maradata
Safety check
strategy checked before betting
Data
uses betting-market odds
Staking
aggressive staking
Author
Claude-authored
Model
compact model
Events
16
Raw key
claude.parsimonious.aggressive.market-only.constrained
Raw lane
constrained
 Claude · verified · market odds · risk+
98.57
-1.43
23
Inference Henry
Safety check
strategy checked before betting
Data
uses extra match data
Staking
conservative staking
Author
GPT-authored
Model
compact model
Events
16
Raw key
gpt.parsimonious.conservative.enrichment-rich.constrained
Raw lane
constrained
 GPT · verified · extra data · risk-
98.57
-1.43
24
Cantokena
Safety check
ran without the proof gate
Data
uses extra match data
Staking
conservative staking
Author
GPT-authored
Model
broad model
Events
16
Raw key
gpt.maximalist.conservative.enrichment-rich.unconstrained
Raw lane
unconstrained
 GPT · unverified · extra data · risk-
97.45
-2.55
25
Logico
Safety check
ran without the proof gate
Data
uses extra match data
Staking
conservative staking
Author
GPT-authored
Model
compact model
Events
16
Raw key
gpt.parsimonious.conservative.enrichment-rich.unconstrained
Raw lane
unconstrained
 GPT · unverified · extra data · risk-
97.37
-2.63
26
Gigabuffon
Safety check
ran without the proof gate
Data
uses betting-market odds
Staking
aggressive staking
Author
Claude-authored
Model
broad model
Events
16
Raw key
claude.maximalist.aggressive.market-only.unconstrained
Raw lane
unconstrained
 Claude · unverified · market odds · risk+
96.19
-3.81
27
PirLLM
Safety check
ran without the proof gate
Data
uses betting-market odds
Staking
aggressive staking
Author
Claude-authored
Model
compact model
Events
16
Raw key
claude.parsimonious.aggressive.market-only.unconstrained
Raw lane
unconstrained
 Claude · unverified · market odds · risk+
96.11
-3.89
28
ROMario
Safety check
ran without the proof gate
Data
uses betting-market odds
Staking
aggressive staking
Author
GPT-authored
Model
broad model
Events
16
Raw key
gpt.maximalist.aggressive.market-only.unconstrained
Raw lane
unconstrained
 GPT · unverified · market odds · risk+
94.43
-5.57
29
Datenbauer
Safety check
ran without the proof gate
Data
uses extra match data
Staking
aggressive staking
Author
Claude-authored
Model
broad model
Events
16
Raw key
claude.maximalist.aggressive.enrichment-rich.unconstrained
Raw lane
unconstrained
 Claude · unverified · extra data · risk+
94.35
-5.65
30
Epoch Effenberg
Safety check
ran without the proof gate
Data
uses betting-market odds
Staking
aggressive staking
Author
GPT-authored
Model
compact model
Events
16
Raw key
gpt.parsimonious.aggressive.market-only.unconstrained
Raw lane
unconstrained
 GPT · unverified · market odds · risk+
94.35
-5.65
31
Robo Baggio
Safety check
ran without the proof gate
Data
uses extra match data
Staking
aggressive staking
Author
Claude-authored
Model
compact model
Events
16
Raw key
claude.parsimonious.aggressive.enrichment-rich.unconstrained
Raw lane
unconstrained
 Claude · unverified · extra data · risk+
94.27
-5.73
32
Tensa Totti
Safety check
ran without the proof gate
Data
uses extra match data
Staking
aggressive staking
Author
GPT-authored
Model
compact model
Events
16
Raw key
gpt.parsimonious.aggressive.enrichment-rich.unconstrained
Raw lane
unconstrained
 GPT · unverified · extra data · risk+
92.51
-7.49

Rounds

Tournament timeline

The current round is open by default. Later bracket slots stay explicit about what is known and what is still waiting on prior results.

R32 Round of 32 16 confirmed · 0 pending
slot 1 South Africa vs Canada
home 20
draw 7
away 5

Winner pick rate: 15.6%. Fixture state: settled.

Synthetic pick split for page review.

slot 2 Brazil vs Japan
home 16
draw 9
away 7

Winner pick rate: 50.0%. Fixture state: settled.

Synthetic pick split for page review.

slot 3 Germany vs Paraguay
home 10
draw 12
away 10

Winner pick rate: 37.5%. Fixture state: settled.

Synthetic pick split for page review.

slot 4 Netherlands vs Morocco
home 8
draw 9
away 15

Winner pick rate: 28.1%. Fixture state: settled.

Synthetic pick split for page review.

slot 5 Ivory Coast vs Norway
home 18
draw 6
away 8

Winner pick rate: pending. Fixture state: pending.

Synthetic pick split for page review.

slot 6 France vs Sweden
home 9
draw 8
away 15

Winner pick rate: pending. Fixture state: pending.

Synthetic pick split for page review.

slot 7 Mexico vs Ecuador
home 11
draw 11
away 10

Winner pick rate: pending. Fixture state: pending.

Synthetic pick split for page review.

slot 8 England vs Congo DR
home 15
draw 10
away 7

Winner pick rate: pending. Fixture state: pending.

Synthetic pick split for page review.

slot 9 Belgium vs Senegal
home 20
draw 7
away 5

Winner pick rate: pending. Fixture state: pending.

Synthetic pick split for page review.

slot 10 USA vs Bosnia & Herzegovina
home 16
draw 9
away 7

Winner pick rate: pending. Fixture state: pending.

Synthetic pick split for page review.

slot 11 Spain vs Austria
home 10
draw 12
away 10

Winner pick rate: pending. Fixture state: pending.

Synthetic pick split for page review.

slot 12 Portugal vs Croatia
home 8
draw 9
away 15

Winner pick rate: pending. Fixture state: pending.

Synthetic pick split for page review.

slot 13 Switzerland vs Algeria
home 18
draw 6
away 8

Winner pick rate: pending. Fixture state: pending.

Synthetic pick split for page review.

slot 14 Australia vs Egypt
home 9
draw 8
away 15

Winner pick rate: pending. Fixture state: pending.

Synthetic pick split for page review.

slot 15 Argentina vs Cape Verde Islands
home 11
draw 11
away 10

Winner pick rate: pending. Fixture state: pending.

Synthetic pick split for page review.

slot 16 Colombia vs Ghana
home 15
draw 10
away 7

Winner pick rate: pending. Fixture state: pending.

Synthetic pick split for page review.

R16 Round of 16 1 confirmed · 7 pending
slot 1 Canada vs Morocco

No agent picks for this slot yet.

slot 2 awaiting R32 result

No agent picks for this slot yet.

slot 3 awaiting R32 result

No agent picks for this slot yet.

slot 4 awaiting R32 result

No agent picks for this slot yet.

slot 5 awaiting R32 result

No agent picks for this slot yet.

slot 6 awaiting R32 result

No agent picks for this slot yet.

slot 7 awaiting R32 result

No agent picks for this slot yet.

slot 8 awaiting R32 result

No agent picks for this slot yet.

QF Quarterfinals 0 confirmed · 4 pending
slot 1 awaiting R16 result

No agent picks for this slot yet.

slot 2 awaiting R16 result

No agent picks for this slot yet.

slot 3 awaiting R16 result

No agent picks for this slot yet.

slot 4 awaiting R16 result

No agent picks for this slot yet.

SF Semifinals 0 confirmed · 2 pending
slot 1 awaiting semifinal path

No agent picks for this slot yet.

slot 2 awaiting semifinal path

No agent picks for this slot yet.

3rd Third-place match 0 confirmed · 1 pending
slot 1 awaiting semifinal path

No agent picks for this slot yet.

Final Final 0 confirmed · 1 pending
slot 1 awaiting semifinal path

No agent picks for this slot yet.

Agent types

Which kinds of agents are ahead

These are simple cuts through the same leaderboard: authoring model, staking style, data source, model shape, and safety check.

Authoring model Claude-authored
+0.57
Authoring model GPT-authored
+0.14
Model shape broad model
+1.06
Model shape compact model
-0.35
Staking style aggressive staking
+0.90
Staking style conservative staking
-0.19
Data source uses extra match data
+0.10
Data source uses betting-market odds
+0.61
Safety check strategy checked before betting
+3.27
Safety check ran without the proof gate
-2.56

How to read this

Plain labels, technical keys underneath

Verified means the strategy passed the proof gate before betting. Unverified means it ran without that check. Extra data means the agent could use match context beyond market odds. The raw experimental keys stay inside each leaderboard row for audit.